July 11, 2005

Ask not for whom the TOL splits

... it splits for thee.

I said I'd consider selling my shares of Toll Bros (TOL) if they hit $107 pre-split, which would be $53.50 post-split.

They did -- in fact, they closed at $53.96 today, after wafting well above $54 for part of the day -- but I held on to 'em. This company (like many of the homebuilders) is still undervalued in terms of P/E, all the major builders have strong backlogs, and some analysts still have this stock as a buy (the other analysts covering it have it as a hold). I'll stick to my plan to hold it at least through next month's earnings report and possibly longer. I'll be looking to see whether the backlog increases or decreases and what analysts think of that. My naive inclination is be wary of letting backlogs increase too much -- at some point some of those folks will start looking elsewhere for their new house, so you gotta start bringing on more contractors to build faster. If they're not doing that quickly enough, there might be a problem.

I'm up $83.91 on the day, which is slightly disappointing only because I was up $140 when I got out of bed this morning. (Scottrade recently added a feature where they tell you how much you've gained or lost for the day so far. It leads to compulsive page-reloading.) Ah, the joys of living in the Pacific time zone: sometimes you make money while you sleep, and lose it while you're awake. Nice to see Sears (SHLD) making a $3.12 move; that helped.

My New York & Co. (NWY) was down nearly a buck a share today -- probably profit-taking after its recent rise from 19-ish to 23-ish. The company announced last Thursday that it had met expectations for the second quarter. Earnings announcements often seem to trigger profit-taking, especially when a company "merely" meets expectations. I hope to see it move back up this week.

I missed "Mad Money" last Friday -- I assumed it wasn't on, as my TiVo had recorded golf! Fortunately, Reasoned Investing has the summary. Gotta have my daily dose of Cramer! (Although I have to admit, reading about his show isn't nearly as fun watching it.)

Posted by kindall at July 11, 2005 02:14 PM