It turns out I got out of Toll Brothers (TOL) at a decent time. It spiked a couple bucks just before they reported earnings, but it's gone nowhere but down ever since. It's down to $46.41 after sliding another 34 cents today (I sold at $48-ish). Cramer says it may be a buy again at $41 or $42. Probably won't buy back in, though -- I'm moving away from Cramer-style trading and back to buy-and-hold style investing. I still have some XLK (technology SPDR) that's underwater a bit and am holding it in hopes Cramer's right about a tech rally, but I think I'm through with his individual picks for the time being. I still like his show, and I could have had a nice profit with TOL if I'd spotted the top better, but for now I think I'd rather buy Hidden Gems and hold them. Maybe in a year or two I'll feel more like speculating.
I've got a couple chunks sitting in cash waiting for opportunity, and I think I'm going to double down on New York & Co (NWY), which is down close to 9% from where I bought in. Today was another down day for that stock, and I hope there are a few more down days this week so I can get an even better price when I do finally buy. Retail's really getting battered.
For the other chunk, I'm considering the new iShares micro-cap ETF, IWC, or perhaps the PowerShares one, PZI. Need to do a bit more research on those. Of course there are also plenty of Hidden Gems that are down sharply with the market -- some of them are quite the bargains now.
Over the last week, while I was off showing my parents around Seattle, my Roth IRA balance continued to plummet almost daily. New York & Co. (NWY) reported a solid quarter today and even raised its full-year guidance, and as a reward, the stock's down another $1.17 as I write this. After being up over 20% a couple weeks ago, it's now down around what I originally paid for it! The market is hating on retailers right now. But I'm going to continue holding, as I believe it's a strong company, and if it goes lower I may even buy some more to reduce my cost basis.
Toll Brothers (TOL) has also taken a serious dip, as have all the homebuilders, it seems. After reaching a high of over $58, it's now trading around $48 -- the market clearly believes this is the last good quarter for the homebuilders, and Cramer's advising people to get out. They report earnings in a week, but I won't be there -- I sold at $48.03. It was a fun ride, and I made a small amount on the stock, though not the 20+% I thought I had locked in, so I look at it as a learning experience. The lesson I've learned is that I can't count on Cramer (or anyone) to tell me when I'm at the top. In retrospect I should have sold when it was at $54 or $55, when I started thinking "wow, that's a nice gain to make in a couple months." It went higher from there, but I should have taken my profit. A friend of mine with a lot more trading experience says you should always have an exit point in mind for every trade. Clearly this is why. If I'd known "I want to make 10% on this" or whatever, I would have sold it when I'd reached that price, and I'd be happy with my gain. I'm beginning to think that longer-term investing is more for me, and that I should avoid Cramer-style sector-chasing.
The good news is I now have a couple of chunks of money I can invest, and damned if the market isn't having a bit of a sale right now. A couple of fairly recent Motley Fools Hidden Gems recommendations are trading below their recommendation price -- I'll be doing a little research over the next few days to figure out which one(s) to get into.
Want to earn 13% on $1500 over the next year? Open a Citibank checking account with $1500 and make two electronic bill payments a month with it, and they'll give you $50 every three months, up to $200. Best of all, those bill payments can actually use up that $1500 -- as long as you make two bill payments a month, there's no minimum balance to avoid account fees. Use that $1500 to pay bills you'd have to pay anyway, and you're all set. $200 of $1500 is over 13% return, which is far better than you'll do in any savings account.
Yesterday I got hammered some more, down more than $100, and once again TOL led the descent, falling well below $50 for the first time since it split. But today, finally, praise the Invisible Hand of Adam Smith, I was back up a total of $60, and TOL came back more than a buck a share. Of course that still leaves me down more than $300 since last week when I saw my total edge above $8000 for one glorious day.
Easy come, easy go...
I'm down another $168 today -- a full two percent. Toll Brothers (TOL) really got hammered; it was down $3.93 (7.1%) on speculation that interest rates might be going to 4% by the end of the year, fueled by a strong July employment report. I'm wishing I'd sold TOL back when it was $57, obviously... but will continue to hold it at least through the quarterly earnings report later this month.
My decision to sell Sears (SHLD) is looking better and better, though. It was down another $2.32 today. I'll be looking over their earnings Sept. 8.
The good news is that I was right to get out of Sears (SHLD). It was down another $3.50 (2.25%) today.
The bad news is that I "should" have sold the rest of my holdings too, because every single stock I own had a lousy day. New York & Co. (NWY) is down more than five percent on what can only be described as lackluster July sales. They report quarterly results on the 18th.
Most of the rest of my holdings are down at least a percent. Toll Brothers (TOL) closed down a full 1.5% -- on news that their backlog has continued to increase and is now 45% bigger than it was this time last year; the value of contracts is also up 19% over the year-ago quarter. This is good, but apparently not as good as Wall Street wanted. They'll be reporting full quarterly results on August 25.
In total I'm down $125 today. One step forward, two steps back...
Sears (SHLD) dropped nearly four bucks today, so I sold it. It didn't go up all that much, and now it's back down again to where I bought in. After commissions I basically broke even. I'm going to stay in cash another week or two and see if it goes any lower... if not, well, there are Hidden Gems I can buy. There's a preliminary earnings report August 15, I hear. CEO Lampert doesn't give much guidance, and a lot of people seem to be suddenly bearish on the stock. I have to wonder if they know something I don't.
I'll admit this was something of a panic move, and I may regret getting out... but there's always another stock.
Paxar (PXR) reported earnings today, which were basically right on expectations (39 cents a share, or 35 cents a share after special one-time charges). Revenues were not much changed from the previous quarter and only a little bigger than the previous year. The stock saw a little softness in price after the announcement (down a dime or so) but recovered nicely and was up 30 cents after the market closed.
Blackboard (BBBB) reported cash earnings per diluted share of 22 cents. Revenues were up 540% over last year and up 26% from the previous quarter. Share price hasn't budged, though, which tells me the good news was basically already "priced into" the stock.
I'll be holding the BBBB for at least a year. The PXR I'm less sure of but I'll hold it for at least another quarter.
I'm a little concerned about New York & Co. (NWY) -- it's been trending downward for several days now (down 21 cents today, nearly another 1%), and I haven't really seen any reason why. It's probably just normal volatility, but I'll be watching it closely. They report in a couple weeks.