What a nice week for the Roth portfolio. I was up more than $400 in the first four days and was dinged only somewhat by a $20 loss today.
What a sucky week for the Roth portfolio. I was down more than $500 in the first four days and was rescued only somewhat by a $100 rebound today.
Wish I had more funds to put into some of these.
I've mentioned more than once that I wish I had some cash sitting in my IRA so I could pick up something the market has thrown a sale on. Basically I've seen an opportunity to make a quick trade but am already fully invested in stocks and don't have anything I want to sell right at the moment.
Here's a case in point. Last Friday a jury found Sherwin-Williams (SHW) liable in a lead paint class-action suit and the stock simply fell off a cliff: from above $52 to under $38 in a single day. This is almost certainly an overreaction.
I hate to keep talking about Jim Cramer, since I believe that blindly following him or any other "guru" is a good way to lose money. You really have to read between the lines a lot with Cramer since he's always saying things like "you need to own FOO" and he assumes you know not to buy it just because he said so but to check it out for yourself. Anyway, he pointed out this past Monday out that it's extremely unlikely SHW will actually have to pay out, and if they do, it'll cost 'em more like fifty cents a share, not $14 a share. And sure enough, on Tuesday the judge in the case basically threw out the fine. The stock has recovered some since last Wednesday (it closed at $45.50 today) but it looks like there's about $7 worth of recovery still to come, which would represent a respectable 15% gain. Let's see if Cramer's right.
Last year I missed out on an opportunity to make a quick 15% on Merck (MRK) under much the same circumstances: a lawsuit, an overreaction by the market, followed by a recovery in just a couple of weeks. I had some money, but was new to investing then and didn't really have the confidence to jump in. But if I had, I'd have made that 15%.
Next time I sell something, or perhaps I'll wait until 2007 when I make my next contribution to the Roth, I'm seriously considering keeping a "chunk" aside just for quick trades like this. I still want to hold most of my stocks for a year or more, but it's just too painful watching obvious trading opportunities like MRK and SHW float by.
Hah. I almost wrote "Mach 1 update." Investing at the speed of sound...
Overall I'm down about $40 for the month of February, which is a bit of a miracle considering how I lost more than $300 in one day last month. But my Roth closed strong today, with over a $200 gain.
Blackboard (BBBB) is up a good, solid 43% from where I bought in. I bitched about it being down around $26 this time last month; it's now above $28. It got above $29 IIRC shortly after Jim Cramer recommended it. My Cummins (CMI) is up strongly -- nearly 10% in February alone.
My Halliburton (HAL), which was up a good 17% in January, is now back down to just above where I bought in. Total (TOT) was down a good 11%, putting me underwater again. Conoco Philips (COP) is also down a few bucks. Clearly not a good month for oil. But these are long-term holdings. If I had some free cash, I might buy more of at least COP and maybe TOT to average down.
The rest isn't so exciting. Got a couple more percentage points in Legg Mason (LM), Franklin Resources (BEN), and the iShares Latin America ETF (ILF). Lost a bit in Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) and Paccar (PCAR) and am underwater on both. I hope the Paccar will start showing some action like Corning (GLW) and Cummins (CMI) have. I'll hold everything for now and revisit this again next month. If I had cash I'd consider picking up some more PCAR.
Overall, about what you'd expect from a month in the market -- some up, some down; some days with big gains, some days with big losses. Average them out and you get a relatively static picture. Compared to the market as a whole, I'm down about 0.3% while the market (as measured by the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF, VT) is up about 0.07%.
Onward to the next month, then...